Will house prices rise in Guangzhou now?

To tell you clearly, by 2035, the house price in Guangzhou may be three times or even higher than it is now, but it will not exceed that in Shenzhen. Guangzhou is an important national central city in China, and Shenzhen in the future will be one of the global central cities. At this point, the house price in Guangzhou will not exceed that in Shenzhen in the future. On the other hand, due to the large area under the jurisdiction of Guangzhou, its farthest urban area is far from the main urban area of Guangzhou. With the development of urbanization, the housing prices in the main urban area will be far from those in the sub-cities between Conghua, Huadu and Zengcheng. Of course, the housing price in the main city of Guangzhou is actually similar to that in Shenzhen, and the gap in the future will not be too big, but the housing price in the sub-city will probably be only 1/3 of that in the main city, or even less. With the construction of Greater Bay Area in the Pearl River Delta, Greater Bay Area in the Pearl River Delta will become the first Greater Bay Area in Asia, surpassing Tokyo Bay. Referring to the housing prices in Tokyo Bay, we can predict that the housing prices in Greater Bay Area in the Pearl River Delta will not be too cheap in the future. Greater Bay Area, the Pearl River Delta, is the most economically developed and densely populated place in China. As the capital of Guangdong Province and one of the core cities of Greater Bay Area in the Pearl River Delta, Guangzhou&;s future digital economy and intelligent manufacturing will represent the most advanced technology. In this round of urbanization process, the housing prices between cities have also produced huge differences, especially in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and surrounding cities. In the future, the housing price in the main urban area of Guangzhou may exceed 150,000 per square meter, and the housing price in the sub-urban area may also exceed 50,000 per square meter. The strength of a city lies in its supporting facilities, especially its medical and educational facilities, as well as its traffic, working environment and employment environment. With the development of urbanization and the positioning of the central city, there will be large enterprises from all parts of the world in the future, and their headquarters will be set up in Guangzhou. A future Guangzhou will also be one of the international central cities, undertaking many urban functions from international enterprises. The strength of the city will inevitably promote the housing price of the city. After all, the land within the delineated scope is limited, and this limited land will have higher land value and higher industrial value. With the great migration of population, more and more people will go to the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta in the future to find employment opportunities, choose jobs and settle down. Then Guangzhou will become the second largest city for young people to travel to the Pearl River Delta, second only to Shenzhen and far ahead of Dongguan, Foshan, Zhongshan and Huizhou. The difference of urban housing prices brought by urbanization will have a great impact between big cities and surrounding cities. A city with perfect urban transportation with subway will have greater support for its housing prices, while there is no subway around, but the big cities that can be reached by intercity railways will be attracted by the population and economy of big cities in this region. Many people think that the Pearl River Delta is very developed, and the inter-city railway is also very developed in the future. Buying a house in Qingyuan and Zhaoqing is also a form of maintaining the value of fixed assets. In fact, this understanding is wrong. Compared with cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Qingyuan and Zhaoqing in the future are not worth mentioning at all.Because there is no room for appreciation of housing prices in non-Pearl River Delta regions like Qingyuan and Zhaoqing in the future. It is possible that by 2035, the house price in the main urban area of Guangzhou has exceeded 150,000 per square meter, while the house price in Zengcheng, Guangzhou is 60,000 yuan per square meter. At this time, the house prices in Zhaoqing and Qingyuan may remain below 20,000 per square meter. It can only be said that the cities located in the radiation zone of the Pearl River Delta may surpass the northeast and the central and western regions, and the housing prices of most regions and cities will be very different from those of the central cities in the core area of the Pearl River Delta, even lower than those of Huizhou City in the Pearl River Delta by more than half. In the future, the subway in Guangzhou will probably break through more than 40 high-density subway traffic, which will bring a qualitative leap to Guangzhou&;s economy and a large number of young people from all over the country to go to Guangzhou to find employment opportunities and settle down in Guangzhou. House price is the ticket to enter the city, just like Beijing and Shanghai now. In the future, not all young people in big cities can go in and settle down easily. Cities in the future will also be echelon. Like pyramids, cities at the top and middle of the pyramid will become the main part of the inflow of young people. The city at the bottom of the pyramid will be part of the outflow of young people. A city&;s housing price, if a large number of young people flow in, will inevitably promote the rise of the city&;s housing price, if a large number of young people set aside, then its housing price will fall to a certain extent. In view of this phenomenon, if we study the housing prices in Japan, you will find that in Tokyo Bay area, its housing prices are very high, while in places outside Tokyo Bay area, its housing prices are very low, and even in some places, there are many houses, but there are no young people. Where there are young people, the house may have lost the value of its asset preservation, and it can even be very cheap and given away, as long as you go to this place. The above is my personal suggestion and understanding. If you are different, you can comment and discuss in the next post. Thank you.


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